Nonpartisan voters help GOP break two-decade trend, redefine Nevada’s political landscape
ELECTION 2024
STEVE MARCUS
Voters wait in line on Election Day at a polling site at Henderson City Hall. Sparked by automatic and same-day voter registration, active nonpartisan voters matched registered Democrats in voter turnout for the first time in Nevada history, with over 461,000 ballots cast from voters outside the two major parties.
Voters wait in line on Election Day at a polling site at Henderson City Hall. Sparked by automatic and same-day voter registration, active nonpartisan voters matched registered Democrats in voter turnout for the first time in Nevada history, with over 461,000 ballots cast from voters outside the two major parties.
A majority of Nevada voters backed the Republican presidential candidate last week for the first time in two decades, and down-ballot races where Democrats were projected to win comfortably closed on tighter-than-expected margins.
To explain the shift, some are pointing their fingers at the largest-growing base of voters in Nevada: nonpartisans.
Sparked by automatic and same-day voter registration, the new top bloc of active voters matched registered Democrats in voter turnout for the first time in the state’s history, with over 461,000 ballots cast from voters outside the two major parties.
Automatic voter registration is often attributed to the increase in nonpartisan registration, however disillusionment with the two major political parties has also fueled the split among young voters, experts say.
Sondra Cosgrove, a Nevada elections expert and political scientist at College of Southern Nevada, said by nature nonpartisan voters were elusive, but many who intentionally remained registered as nonpartisan were upset with the direction of both major parties.
“We need to find out more about them to kind of figure these things out, but then we also need to be thinking about moving forward, the frustrations with the political parties,” Cosgrove said.
Nonpartisan registration exploded after Nevada started its automatic voter registration program in 2020. It allows Nevada residents to register to vote when conducting routine business, like license renewals, at the Department of Motor Vehicles. But while some assume those registering as nonpartisan during automatic registration are doing so uninformed, others feel the increase in unaffiliated voters is much more intentional.
“We all know that most of the nonpartisans are getting automatically registered and defaulting (to) nonpartisan through the DMV, but then they’re staying nonpartisan and they’re staying registered to vote,” Cosgrove said.
Eight of the nine states where independents make up the largest share of voters have automatic voter registration, and after rapid increases since 2020, nonpartisans became the largest share of voters in 2023. By Election Day this month, there were almost 676,000 registered active nonpartisans, compared with just under 610,000 Democrats and 601,000 Republicans, according to data from the Nevada secretary of state.
Independent voters in Nevada broke for former President Donald Trump 48% in the 2024 election compared with 46% for Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a CNN exit poll. The small shift that made all the difference for Trump’s near 50,000- vote lead over Harris, and for independent male voters, that shift toward the former president grew to 55%.
Once a person registers as nonpartisan, representatives from both parties can have a harder time identifying appropriate outreach compared with finding unregistered voters, even if the voter has a particular party preference.
“They largely vote Democrat or Republican, but they’ve been registered as nonpartisan, so it takes the campaigns a little bit more work to find them, and then it maybe leaves a little bit more mystery on Election Day,” said Daniel Stewart, former chief strategy officer for former Gov. Steve Sisolak.
Active registered Democrats in Nevada largely plateaued this election cycle, even withering in rural counties and among young voters while nonpartisan and Republican made gains.
The culminating elements meant that for the first time in the state’s history, Democrats made up fewer than 30% of all registered voters — and election results were even more beholden to nonpartisan voters than they already were.
“I knew that was coming.
Didn’t know when, but the fact that it happened right before the general election, again, it just increased the role of the nonpartisan voter,” said Doug Goodman, founder and executive director Nevadans for Election Reform.
Young voters have especially taken to nonpartisanship, with over half of all active Nevada voters aged 18-24 being registered nonpartisans as of October. And although fewer cast their ballot than in 2020, younger Nevadans still turned out in force: about 50% voted in the 2024 election, according to the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement.
Cosgrove said she was unsurprised by young nonpartisans leaning toward the messaging of the Republican Party, which hammered the Biden administration for increased costs of living. Day-to-day conversations with students in Cosgrove’s classes revealed to her that messaging had stuck with young voters, who often vote based on interests rather than party loyalty, experts say.
“They are issue voters, that’s it,” Goodman said. “They don’t lean one party or another. Some of their issue positions may align better with one party or the other, but that’s not saying they’re going to lean Democratic and vote for all the Democratic candidates.”
The economy was often rated as the most pressing issue among voters in polls leading up to Election Day, and Goodman said Democrats put too much weight on pushing abortion as a top issue while ignoring economic concerns.
And even though Republican messaging was also doused in blaming inflation and rising costs on immigration, the core financial concerns still spoke to the younger base.
“In my mind, it definitely shows that the issues that were being discussed by the Republican Party resonated with these younger voters,” Goodman said.
“I don’t think (Democrats) knew quite how to connect on the full range of issues that impact the younger voters, because that’s the key.”
Beyond their seemingly conservative lean, nonpartisans also chipped away at Democratic base in the state’s most populous counties. In Clark County where 71% of registered Nevadan voters reside, Democrats represented 41% and 44% of the votes cast in Clark County during the 2016 and 2020 elections, respectively.
But in 2024, that share dropped to just under 34%.
Meanwhile, nonpartisans propelled from 24% of the county vote in 2016 to 34% in 2024 — all while Republican vote shares remained stable at 32%.
“The big turnout that surprised everybody was the Republican turnout in the rural counties first, and then everybody expected the Democrats (to) usually build their wall in Clark County, so they’ll turn out. But that blue wall with the Democrats didn’t really seem to build the way it had in the past,” Cosgrove said.
In a state with closed primaries, Cosgrove said it was difficult to get the electoral process to work most effectively without more engagement, making realignment with nonpartisans even more crucial.
“We get better results when more people are participating, and so if there’s a thing we could fix, I would like to know what it is, and I would help fix it, but it’s hard with as many of them as there are.” Cosgrove said. kyle.chouinard@gmgvegas. com / 702-990-8923 / @Kyle_Chouinard
To explain the shift, some are pointing their fingers at the largest-growing base of voters in Nevada: nonpartisans.
Sparked by automatic and same-day voter registration, the new top bloc of active voters matched registered Democrats in voter turnout for the first time in the state’s history, with over 461,000 ballots cast from voters outside the two major parties.
Automatic voter registration is often attributed to the increase in nonpartisan registration, however disillusionment with the two major political parties has also fueled the split among young voters, experts say.
Sondra Cosgrove, a Nevada elections expert and political scientist at College of Southern Nevada, said by nature nonpartisan voters were elusive, but many who intentionally remained registered as nonpartisan were upset with the direction of both major parties.
“We need to find out more about them to kind of figure these things out, but then we also need to be thinking about moving forward, the frustrations with the political parties,” Cosgrove said.
Nonpartisan registration exploded after Nevada started its automatic voter registration program in 2020. It allows Nevada residents to register to vote when conducting routine business, like license renewals, at the Department of Motor Vehicles. But while some assume those registering as nonpartisan during automatic registration are doing so uninformed, others feel the increase in unaffiliated voters is much more intentional.
“We all know that most of the nonpartisans are getting automatically registered and defaulting (to) nonpartisan through the DMV, but then they’re staying nonpartisan and they’re staying registered to vote,” Cosgrove said.
Eight of the nine states where independents make up the largest share of voters have automatic voter registration, and after rapid increases since 2020, nonpartisans became the largest share of voters in 2023. By Election Day this month, there were almost 676,000 registered active nonpartisans, compared with just under 610,000 Democrats and 601,000 Republicans, according to data from the Nevada secretary of state.
Independent voters in Nevada broke for former President Donald Trump 48% in the 2024 election compared with 46% for Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a CNN exit poll. The small shift that made all the difference for Trump’s near 50,000- vote lead over Harris, and for independent male voters, that shift toward the former president grew to 55%.
Once a person registers as nonpartisan, representatives from both parties can have a harder time identifying appropriate outreach compared with finding unregistered voters, even if the voter has a particular party preference.
“They largely vote Democrat or Republican, but they’ve been registered as nonpartisan, so it takes the campaigns a little bit more work to find them, and then it maybe leaves a little bit more mystery on Election Day,” said Daniel Stewart, former chief strategy officer for former Gov. Steve Sisolak.
Active registered Democrats in Nevada largely plateaued this election cycle, even withering in rural counties and among young voters while nonpartisan and Republican made gains.
The culminating elements meant that for the first time in the state’s history, Democrats made up fewer than 30% of all registered voters — and election results were even more beholden to nonpartisan voters than they already were.
“I knew that was coming.
Didn’t know when, but the fact that it happened right before the general election, again, it just increased the role of the nonpartisan voter,” said Doug Goodman, founder and executive director Nevadans for Election Reform.
Young voters have especially taken to nonpartisanship, with over half of all active Nevada voters aged 18-24 being registered nonpartisans as of October. And although fewer cast their ballot than in 2020, younger Nevadans still turned out in force: about 50% voted in the 2024 election, according to the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement.
Cosgrove said she was unsurprised by young nonpartisans leaning toward the messaging of the Republican Party, which hammered the Biden administration for increased costs of living. Day-to-day conversations with students in Cosgrove’s classes revealed to her that messaging had stuck with young voters, who often vote based on interests rather than party loyalty, experts say.
“They are issue voters, that’s it,” Goodman said. “They don’t lean one party or another. Some of their issue positions may align better with one party or the other, but that’s not saying they’re going to lean Democratic and vote for all the Democratic candidates.”
The economy was often rated as the most pressing issue among voters in polls leading up to Election Day, and Goodman said Democrats put too much weight on pushing abortion as a top issue while ignoring economic concerns.
And even though Republican messaging was also doused in blaming inflation and rising costs on immigration, the core financial concerns still spoke to the younger base.
“In my mind, it definitely shows that the issues that were being discussed by the Republican Party resonated with these younger voters,” Goodman said.
“I don’t think (Democrats) knew quite how to connect on the full range of issues that impact the younger voters, because that’s the key.”
Beyond their seemingly conservative lean, nonpartisans also chipped away at Democratic base in the state’s most populous counties. In Clark County where 71% of registered Nevadan voters reside, Democrats represented 41% and 44% of the votes cast in Clark County during the 2016 and 2020 elections, respectively.
But in 2024, that share dropped to just under 34%.
Meanwhile, nonpartisans propelled from 24% of the county vote in 2016 to 34% in 2024 — all while Republican vote shares remained stable at 32%.
“The big turnout that surprised everybody was the Republican turnout in the rural counties first, and then everybody expected the Democrats (to) usually build their wall in Clark County, so they’ll turn out. But that blue wall with the Democrats didn’t really seem to build the way it had in the past,” Cosgrove said.
In a state with closed primaries, Cosgrove said it was difficult to get the electoral process to work most effectively without more engagement, making realignment with nonpartisans even more crucial.
“We get better results when more people are participating, and so if there’s a thing we could fix, I would like to know what it is, and I would help fix it, but it’s hard with as many of them as there are.” Cosgrove said. kyle.chouinard@gmgvegas. com / 702-990-8923 / @Kyle_Chouinard