WASHINGTON — Most U.S. adults plan to watch some element of Thursday’s presidential debate and many think the event will be important for the campaigns of both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
Both men remain broadly unpopular as they prepare to face off for the first time since 2020, although Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, maintains a modest enthusiasm advantage with his base compared to Biden, the Democratic incumbent.
About 6 in 10 U.S. adults say they are “extremely” or “very” likely to watch the debate live or in clips, or read about or listen to commentary about the performance of the candidates in the news or social media.
The poll suggests tens of millions of Americans are likely to see or hear about at least part of Thursday’s debate despite how unusually early it comes in the campaign season. Both Biden and Trump supporters view the debate as a major test for their candidate — or just a spectacle not to miss.
“I think it’s super important,” said Victoria Perdomo, a 44-year-old stay at-home mom and a Trump supporter in Coral Springs, Florida. “It shows America what you’re going to see for the next four years.” Nic Greene, a libertarian who is a registered independent, said he’ll likely vote for Trump as the “least worst candidate.”
He doesn’t think debates do much to help voters make decisions, but he’s expecting to be entertained and plans to listen to post-debate analysis on podcasts.
Both sides see debate as important
About half, 47 percent, of Americans say the debate is “extremely” or “very” important for the success of Biden’s campaign and about 4 in 10 say it’s highly important for Trump’s campaign.
About 3 in 10 Americans say it is at least “very” important for both campaigns. Most Democrats, 55 percent, think the upcoming debate is extremely or very important for the success of the Biden campaign.
About half of Republicans, 51 percent, say the same thing about the importance of the debate for the Trump campaign. Only about one-third of independents say the debate, taking place at a CNN studio in Atlanta, is highly important for either campaign.
Arthur Morris, a 40-year-old operations manager at a major financial firm, is an undecided voter open to Biden, Trump or a third-party option such as independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. He, along with a significant share of Americans , has doubts about the mental capabilities of the aging candidates, and sees Biden’s debate performance as an important test.
“I need Biden to demonstrate to me that he’s cogent enough to be able to hold this office and execute to the level that we need him to,” Morris said.
Trump, meanwhile, needs to show he can be trusted after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, said Morris, of Lewiston, Ohio. The only other scheduled debate is set to be hosted by ABC on Sept. 10. David Muir and Linsey Davis will moderate.
The poll of 1,088 adults was conducted June 20-24, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population.
The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4 percentage points.